SVB’s Demise Won’t Bring Interest Rates Down: Don’t Get Your Hopes Up

• The Federal Reserve has created a Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) to backstop banks.
• Despite recent bank failures, crypto and stock markets have seen some bullishness due to the Fed’s decision to not raise interest rates.
• However, the BTFP may actually make it easier for the Fed to further raise interest rates in the future.

The Federal Reserve’s Bank Term Funding Program

The Federal Reserve recently announced an initiative called the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) as a backstop for banks, providing liquidity in uncertain times. The program is intended to help stabilize financial institutions during crises and provide them with a source of funding if needed.

Bullish Reactions to Recent Bank Failures

Despite recent bank failures within the last week that would seem to suggest a rocky road ahead for the economy, crypto markets have experienced a surge over the past few days, with bitcoin and ether rising by around 20%. Stock markets are down sharply Wednesday morning as banking’s woes expand to Europe, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average was actually up a little over 1% between Monday’s open and Tuesday’s close. This reflects what is known as “bad news is good news” environment: Anything that makes a Federal Reserve interest rate hike less likely — including negative news about the real economy — is positive for asset markets.

Risk of Higher Interest Rates Down The Line

However, markets may still be overlooking one potential consequence of BTFP: It could make it easier for the Fed to further raise interest rates in the future. While this could potentially help shore-up struggling banks in their moment of crisis now, it also means higher costs and lower returns on investments in stocks and crypto assets down the line.

Benefits vs Risks of BTFP

The benefits of BTFP are clear: Banks will have more access to funds when needed most, which can prevent economic contractions from becoming even deeper during difficult times. However, there is also risk associated with this program—namely that it could make it easier for interest rates to rise again if conditions improve quickly enough or if inflationary pressures kick in faster than expected.


Overall, while there may be short-term gains from market reactions fueled by expectations of low interest rates thanks to BTFP’s backstopping efforts, investors should take into account potential risks down the line when considering long-term strategies related to investments in stocks or cryptocurrencies.